Will the Democratic Party win the CA-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $16,694 open interest, suggesting the 92¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp repricing. The massive 2099% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of a thin, one-sided market where minimal capital has pushed prices to the extremes—the 1¢ spread masks the underlying fragility. With 200 days to expiration and a neutral regime score, this heavily Democratic-favored district (CA-01 leans blue) appears fairly priced at 92%, but traders should be cautious of the cliff risk index of 12 and the potential for significant slippage if any meaningful volume enters.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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