Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat?

The Republican contract at 77¢ reflects strong confidence in GOP performance in NV-02, though the extreme 609% implied yield on the "No" side signals substantial mispricing or tail-risk hedging rather than genuine market uncertainty. With only $8.16 in 24-hour volume against $13.2M open interest, liquidity is severely constrained, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for large trades and suggesting this market may not be actively discovered. The 201-day timeline to the November 2026 election provides ample time for political developments to shift the race, yet the minimal 1¢ price movement over seven days indicates the market has largely priced in current fundamentals with little recent news flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NV-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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