Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 59% probability that Will Ethan Corson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 59¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest, suggesting the 72¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp reversals.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $10k open interest, suggesting the 72¢ price may not reflect true consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp reversals. The massive 861% implied yield on the "No" side combined with 500% realized volatility indicates significant uncertainty about Corson's viability as a candidate, with the market potentially overpricing his chances given the thin trading activity. With 109 days to expiration and a 6¢ spread, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market, warranting caution for new entrants.
Also on kalshi at 70¢(Δ -11¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Kansas, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Kansas Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xb83df8ea773e1f6693320c4ee94f28ab3fbe10d270d695b6e0f76d03cabeed4d yes 100