Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 7.00% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

This mortgage rate market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 87¢ spread despite moderate open interest of $7k, suggesting thin order books and potentially unreliable pricing. The 49¢ price implies roughly even odds of hitting 7.00% by end-2026, but the astronomical realized volatility of 1128% and vol ratio of 9.59 indicate wild price swings—notably a 23¢ jump over seven days—that may reflect sporadic, low-conviction trades rather than fundamental repricing. With 259 days to expiration and current mortgage rates around 6.8%, the market is pricing in a modest probability of further tightening, though the extreme yield spreads (135-147%) and thin liquidity make this contract risky for position-taking.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

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