Will the Ethereum Volatility Index hit 85 by April 30?

This illiquid micro-market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 42¢ spread and just $46.88 open interest across zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 27¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The implied yield of 5272% on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high relative to the modest 85 volatility threshold and 15-day timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or market makers demanding compensation for execution risk in a venue with virtually no trading activity. The sharp 7-day decline from 49¢ to 32¢ coupled with realized volatility of 1294% suggests recent price discovery, but with such thin liquidity and a taker-dominated regime, this market is better suited for observation than participation.

Resolution rules

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Volmex 1 minute candle for the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index (EVIV) between the creation of this market and 23:59 ET on the date specified in the title has a final "High" value equal to or greater than the value specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Volmex, specifically the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index "High" values available at https://charts.volmex.finance/symbol/EVIV, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the data from the Ethereum Volmex Implied Volatility 30 Day Index chart. Values from other exchanges or different indexes will not be considered for the resolution of this market.

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