What will the Ethereum implied volatility Index hit by April 30?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 18 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
16%
18 contracts
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$94K
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
207 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 800
0x717672…1612
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,000
0xacb333…e369
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↓ 1,500
0xcf25cc…9780
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,500
0xb75b8c…aac8
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 3,500
0x42945e…9dfc
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,000
0x9775cd…621c
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 5,000
0x1c4fd6…0a13
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 4,500
0xa3143f…7e21
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 8,000
0xac0b43…33c8
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,000
0x6132cc…918a
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 6,500
0x0f0499…3a80
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,500
0x4fc872…aaa1
What price will Ethereum hit in 2026?: ↑ 7,000
0x4ee2c6…4de0
Cluster 2
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 25 Gwei
0x9ea003…d5f2
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 10 Gwei
0x9cd09f…d76a
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 20 Gwei
0x85d9ea…cacc
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gwei
0xa6a9da…d16e
What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 15 Gwei
0xe32a73…6063
Analysis
This prediction asks whether Ethereum's implied volatility index will fall below 60 by April 30, 2026—a measure of expected price swings in the market. The current 21% probability reflects skepticism that volatility will compress to that level within the remaining timeframe. The primary drivers are Ethereum's price trajectory and broader market conditions: sustained price stability would reduce implied volatility, while sharp moves or uncertainty would maintain elevated levels. The resolution depends on actual volatility measurements from major derivatives exchanges as we approach the deadline. Key factors include current macro conditions, regulatory developments affecting crypto markets, and Ethereum's correlation with broader financial asset volatility.
- ›Current Ethereum implied volatility levels and trend direction relative to the 60 threshold
- ›Concentration of price predictions between $800–$1,500 versus upside bets at $4,000+, indicating mixed directional conviction
- ›Volume and activity patterns in Ethereum derivatives markets, which directly influence implied volatility calculations
- ›Macroeconomic and interest-rate environment shifts, historically correlated with crypto asset volatility
- ›Regulatory announcements or protocol developments that could trigger rapid repricing or uncertainty spikes
What moved the line
- Jun 5↓ 1,500↑11pp74→85¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ 1,500↑8pp85→93¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3↓ 1,500↑6pp62→68¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 4↓ 1,500↑6pp68→74¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 6↓ 1,000↑4pp30→34¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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