Will the Republican Party win the TN-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (94%) that Republicans will retain Tennessee's 2nd congressional district, though the zero 24-hour volume and modest $26k open interest suggest thin liquidity despite the tight 1¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—11.6% for Yes versus an extreme 2,849.7% for No—reflect the lopsided pricing, with the No side offering speculative value if there's an unexpected Democratic surge before the November 2026 election. With 201 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 16, this appears to be a relatively stable market reflecting TN-02's strong Republican lean, though the lack of recent trading activity warrants caution about execution if attempting to trade the contrarian position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade