Will Jessica de la Cruz win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Republican primary election?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.5M open interest and an extraordinarily high implied yield of 8388% on the Yes side. The 9244% realized volatility and 8.07 vol ratio indicate wild price swings disconnected from fundamental information, suggesting the 3¢ price may reflect minimal actual trading rather than genuine probability assessment. With 141 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 32, this market is vulnerable to sudden repricing once meaningful volume or candidate announcements emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade