Will the Republican Party win the NJ-03 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 9% Republican win probability despite NJ-03 being a historically Democratic district (Biden won it by 13+ points in 2020), yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 1839% implied yield versus just 18% for the No side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $27,337 open interest and a wide 2¢ spread suggests severe illiquidity, making the high yield potentially illusory—any attempt to actually execute a position at these prices would likely move the market significantly. With 201 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a liquidity trap rather than a genuine market inefficiency.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade