Will Dak Prescott win the 2026 NFL MVP?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite an 84¢ spread and $80k open interest, suggesting the last trade occurred well before today. The 42¢ price implies a 42% MVP probability for Prescott, but the massive 564% realized volatility and 4.67 vol ratio indicate wild historical swings that don't align with current pricing stability—the 7-day movement of just 1¢ (43¢ to 42¢) suggests the market may be stale. With 302 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 2.2 events per hour, this contract has ample time for repricing, but traders should be cautious of the wide bid-ask spread when entering positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade