Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next person to leave the Trump Cabinet

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract measures the likelihood that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. will be the first member of Trump's Cabinet to depart. At 12%, RFK Jr. ranks third among Cabinet members in departure probability, behind Pete Hegseth (14%) and tied with Howard Lutnick (14%), but ahead of Susie Wiles (7%). The probability reflects market assessment of tenure stability based on factors including confirmation challenges, policy conflict potential, and organizational friction. RFK Jr.'s position as HHS Secretary has historically been controversial given his stance on vaccines and pharmaceutical regulation, which could either accelerate or complicate any departure. Market participants are pricing in the typical Cabinet turnover rates observed in previous administrations, adjusted for specific personnel dynamics. There is no imminent scheduled resolution event, making this a longer-duration uncertainty contract shaped by ongoing political dynamics and performance assessments rather than a near-term trigger.

• ›RFK Jr. ranks third in departure probability behind Hegseth (14%) and Lutnick (14%), suggesting markets view him as moderately likely but not the most unstable appointee
• ›The contract volume ($158 24h) is relatively modest compared to Hegseth's ($932), indicating less market consensus on RFK Jr.'s specific tenure risk
• ›HHS leadership positions carry documented turnover risk due to regulatory conflicts, budget disputes, and policy friction with other agencies
• ›RFK Jr.'s public statements on vaccines and pharmaceuticals have generated congressional scrutiny that could either lead to forced resignation or paradoxically entrench him with Trump
• ›Cabinet departures typically occur 18-36 months into an administration, making this a medium-to-long-term uncertainty without a specific catalyst date

What moved the line

• Sep 17Brooke Rollins↓12pp14→2¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Robert F. Kennedy Jr.↓7pp15→8¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Scott Bessent↑7pp2→9¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Robert F. Kennedy Jr.↑6pp9→15¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Susie Wiles↓5pp8→3¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds