Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?

Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will something else than the listed options occur in respect to Fed Chair confirmation and rates?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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3¢
Bid/Ask 3/4¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $40·OI $5,175.388·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0xbb676d25a7ce355a3a10fa2bfbee5cb7b6b2ee36581ada7914d73ad78bedf62d
7-day price14 snapshots · 2 regime
4¢3¢ current
Apr 83¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe. This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met. The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair? This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent. Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026? The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4661.9%
IY (No) 4.5%
Adj IY 2331%
CRI 32
Overround 0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)4661.9%
IY (No)4.5%
Adj IY2331%
CRI32
Overround0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:23:59 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:18 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xbb676d25a7ce355a3a10fa2bfbee5cb7b6b2ee36581ada7914d73ad78bedf62d yes 100

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