Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. The market is pricing Mike Lindell at just 13¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2105.5% on the Yes side, reflecting extreme skepticism about his primary chances despite $12.4M in open interest.
Analysis
The market is pricing Mike Lindell at just 13¢ with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 2105.5% on the Yes side, reflecting extreme skepticism about his primary chances despite $12.4M in open interest. The 3¢ spread and minimal 24-hour volume of $60 suggest very low liquidity for a market with 116 days to expiry, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action indicate the market has settled on this valuation, though the high cliff risk index (7) warns of potential volatility around key political developments or primary filing deadlines.
Also on kalshi at 13¢(Δ 0¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Minnesota Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xbbd623c4191ca76dec466507375d6df85b403b7e14f9cbd3d09f2c450ae0cd96 yes 100