Will the Democrats win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?

The 8¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for a Democratic victory in Idaho's reliably Republican Senate seat, with the implied yield on the Yes side reaching an extraordinary 2099.6%, suggesting substantial skepticism about Democratic viability in this race. However, the market shows concerning liquidity constraints with only $26.28 in 24-hour volume against $20.9M open interest, creating potential execution challenges and raising questions about price discovery efficiency. The 12 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score warrant caution, as the thin trading volume relative to open interest could lead to sharp repricing if new information emerges closer to the 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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