Will Sergei Pavlovich be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 28% probability that Will Sergei Pavlovich be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 28¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 55¢ spread, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 55¢ spread, making the 28¢ price potentially unreliable for actual execution. The 387% implied yield on the yes side is unusually high and likely reflects the wide bid-ask gap rather than genuine edge, while the 30,284% realized volatility suggests highly erratic historical pricing on minimal trades. With 255 days to expiration and Pavlovich currently outside the title picture in UFC heavyweight rankings, the market appears thinly traded and should be approached cautiously for position-taking.
Also on kalshi at —¢
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Heavyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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Trade
sf trade 0xbfe56eac5d634a134434c723d6cd5885d23bbd2fb371a00ded7f991fadf30212 yes 100