Will the Democratic Party win the WA-10 House seat?

This market shows extreme skew with the Democratic candidate priced at 92¢ reflecting strong confidence in a Democratic hold of WA-10, yet the asymmetric implied yields (15.8% for Yes versus 2091.8% for No) reveal severe liquidity constraints on the No side. The $0 in 24-hour volume combined with $27,403 open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a relatively illiquid position market where the pricing may not reflect true consensus, particularly given the 201 days to expiration and moderate cliff risk index of 12. The extraordinarily high risk-adjusted implied yield of 1046% indicates that betting against the Democratic outcome carries outsized payoff potential but with minimal liquidity to execute such trades.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade