Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 79% probability that Will Islam Makhachev be the UFC Welterweight Champion on December 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 79¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026. The 73¢ price reflects a heavily skewed risk profile, with the "No" side offering an asymmetric 382.6% implied yield compared to just 52.3% for "Yes"—suggesting market participants view Makhachev's welterweight title prospects as unlikely despite his current middleweight trajectory.
Analysis
The 73¢ price reflects a heavily skewed risk profile, with the "No" side offering an asymmetric 382.6% implied yield compared to just 52.3% for "Yes"—suggesting market participants view Makhachev's welterweight title prospects as unlikely despite his current middleweight trajectory. With only $232 in 24-hour volume against $666 in open interest, liquidity is thin relative to the position size, creating potential slippage risk for larger traders. The modest 2¢ price decline over seven days and neutral regime score indicate the market has largely priced in expectations, though the 258-day timeframe leaves substantial uncertainty around Makhachev's division move, injury risk, and competitive landscape.
Also on kalshi at 58¢(Δ +21¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
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sf trade 0xc0f31bcf5266102629e42f887466dd2345b8966dd5aa0ec8125d6aa233cb3a19 yes 100