Will Daniel Ennis win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

Daniel Ennis is priced at a substantial 76% probability to win the Dublin Central by-election, but the market shows concerning illiquidity with only $30 in 24-hour volume against $16.5k open interest, suggesting limited confidence in price discovery. The dramatically skewed implied yields—446.8% for "No" versus 44.6% for "Yes"—indicate the market is heavily overweighting the favorite, creating potential arbitrage opportunities if Ennis's actual win probability is closer to consensus expectations. With 259 days until expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market, warranting caution around the thin liquidity.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Regime

Trade