Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will Jim Schwartzel be the Republican nominee for FL-19?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing August 18, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest, with only $9 in 24-hour volume against a massive 23¢ spread and 1035% realized volatility.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest, with only $9 in 24-hour volume against a massive 23¢ spread and 1035% realized volatility. The 1987% implied yield on the "Yes" side is a classic sign of thin markets where small trades can create outsized percentage returns, particularly concerning given the 7/10 Cliff Risk Index suggesting potential resolution uncertainty. With 123 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 44% price movement over seven days (9¢ to 13¢) warrants caution—this appears to be a low-conviction, low-liquidity market where position sizing should be conservative.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc16fade4bbc06895f8e456e1e49c6aa51c1b2dc7f734b3ad8fe8a5900d6a4174 yes 100