Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 14% probability that Republicans will hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships post-2026, down sharply from 25¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent political developments have shifted expectations toward outcomes outside this narrow range.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 14% probability that Republicans will hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships post-2026, down sharply from 25¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent political developments have shifted expectations toward outcomes outside this narrow range. The extreme 1121% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with minimal $8.82 daily volume and $12,082.7 open interest indicates this is a low-liquidity niche contract where the pricing may not reflect true probabilities, particularly given the 3.87 volatility ratio suggesting outsized price swings. With 200 days to expiry and a 6 Cliff Risk Index, traders should be cautious of binary resolution risk, especially if major gubernatorial races tighten or unexpected special elections occur before November 2026.
Resolution rules
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xc21ac08bdb96bf9c25ed1e7bdae4f2408e0dc51446fc0bae584a45954558409d yes 100