Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $8,200 (HIGH) in December?

This market prices an extremely unlikely move requiring SPX to rally roughly 3.5% from current levels to $8,200 within 258 days, yet the 946.9% implied yield on the YES side reflects severe illiquidity with only $10.75 in 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest the 13¢ price may be stale or driven by minimal trading rather than genuine conviction, making this a classic low-liquidity trap where the implied yield overstates actual expected returns.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.

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Regime

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