Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 4939.6% implied yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $37,761 in open interest, suggesting very thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing. The 9-cent price appears artificially depressed given the high cliff risk index of 10 and the neutral regime score, indicating significant uncertainty about whether this geopolitical event could materialize within the 75-day window. The massive yield discrepancy between Yes (4939.6%) and No (48.3%) sides, combined with the complete absence of recent trading activity, suggests this market may not be efficiently pricing the actual probability of Mojtaba Khamenei leaving Iran by mid-2026.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade