Will the Republican Party win the CA-09 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,845.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 18.1% on the No side, suggesting the 9¢ price significantly undervalues Republican chances in this Democratic-leaning district. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $18.6M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread indicates liquidity may be concentrated among a few positions rather than active trading, raising questions about price discovery. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market, warranting caution about the reliability of the 9% probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade