Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?

The market has rallied sharply from 50¢ to 64¢ over seven days following the May 28, 2025 Court of International Trade ruling against Trump's tariff authority, suggesting traders are pricing in a meaningful probability of forced refunds. However, the extreme 877% implied yield on "No" combined with 386% realized volatility and a 2.21 vol ratio indicates significant uncertainty and potential mispricing, particularly given the legal complexity of remedies post-ruling. With 74 days to resolution and only $1.024M in 24h volume against $21.7M open interest, the thin liquidity relative to open positions presents execution risk for larger traders seeking to exit positions.

Resolution rules

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States. This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur: 1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part 2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe. For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs. If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.

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