Will the Democratic Party win the OH-13 House seat?

The Democratic contract has surged 16 cents over seven days to 81¢, reflecting growing confidence in holding Ohio's 13th district, though the extreme 774% implied yield on the "No" side suggests severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the $0 24-hour volume and $8,006 open interest. The 633% realized volatility and 8.78 vol ratio indicate this market has experienced dramatic swings despite 201 days to expiration, and the 4/10 cliff risk score warrants caution about potential structural breaks as the 2026 midterms approach.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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