Will the Democratic Party win the TX-33 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided 93% probability for a Democratic win in TX-33, yet shows zero 24-hour volume despite $25.6K open interest, suggesting this may be a stale or illiquid position. The No side offers an extraordinary 2416.7% implied yield versus just 13.7% for Yes, indicating severe mispricing or that the market lacks sufficient liquidity to arbitrage the gap. With over 200 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yield asymmetry warrants caution about actual tradability.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade