Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 16¢ to 7¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information reducing strike probability or profit-taking after initial volatility.
Analysis
The market has experienced dramatic repricing, collapsing from 16¢ to 7¢ over seven days, suggesting either new information reducing strike probability or profit-taking after initial volatility. The extreme implied yield of 35,362% on the Yes side reflects the tiny 7¢ price creating massive leverage, though this is partially offset by a concerning 986% realized volatility and Cliff Risk Index of 13, indicating substantial tail risk as the market approaches its April 30 expiry in just 14 days. With $21.2M in 24-hour volume against $49.9M open interest and only a 1¢ spread, liquidity is reasonable, but the sharp price decline combined with high information arrival (0.5/hour) suggests traders are actively reassessing the geopolitical situation.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Kharg Island oil terminal is the subject of a kinetic strike by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying strikes occurring on or after February 28 ET will count even if they occurred before market creation. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Indicators
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Trade
sf trade 0xc5675bc58c8117391cc243780c1b709ce1ef744aa27779c78ee82f3dc974ca1b yes 100