Will Janice Boylan win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?

The 13¢ price on Boylan reflects a significant underdog position with an extraordinarily high implied yield of 944% for YES bettors, suggesting either substantial mispricing or market skepticism about her candidacy despite limited information arrival (1.3/h). The 30% price increase over seven days combined with extreme realized volatility of 1040% indicates high uncertainty, though the 259-day timeframe to resolution provides ample time for fundamentals to clarify before the by-election occurs. With $12M in open interest against modest 24-hour volume of $65K, liquidity is relatively thin for the position size, creating potential slippage concerns for larger trades.

Resolution rules

A by-election for a seat from the Dublin Central constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Paschal Donohoe. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Dublin-Central seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official election results published by the Irish government, specifically the Irish parliament or “Oireachtas” (https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/elections/).

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Regime

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