Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.29M open interest, and the 19¢ bid-ask spread creates significant friction for traders. The 841% annualized yield on the "Yes" side suggests the 19% probability is likely too pessimistic given gold's current levels and the ~18-month timeframe to $5,600, though the realized volatility of 8,815% indicates substantial historical price swings that warrant caution. Recent price movement from 21¢ to 28¢ over seven days signals growing conviction among holders, but the high vol ratio of 20.09 and neutral regime suggest this could be mean-reverting noise rather than fundamental repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official CME settlement price for the Active Month of Gold futures on the final trading day of June 2026 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month. Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count. Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract. Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored. This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates. The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.

Indicators

Regime

Trade