Will the Republican Party win the RI-01 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Republicans priced at just 7¢ despite Rhode Island's 1st district being competitive territory, generating a nonsensical 2416.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $38k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests this is a stale or illiquid position, making the price potentially unreliable as a genuine probability estimate. With over 200 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficient market signal.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade