Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?

The 23¢ price implies Republicans will retain at least 22 governorships with 77% confidence, reflecting historical resilience in gubernatorial races where the party typically maintains strong state-level control. The extreme 578% implied yield on the "Yes" side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and modest $11.6K open interest suggests this is a thin, speculative market where the low price may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. Notable volatility (790% realized, 3.28 vol ratio) and a sharp 7-cent move over seven days indicate price discovery is still occurring with 200 days to expiry, though the 3.3 information arrivals per hour suggest limited fundamental catalysts are currently moving the market.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the party distribution of governors as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the November 2026 gubernatorial elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade