Will Derrick Henry win the 2026 NFL MVP?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite an 84¢ spread and $86.5k open interest, suggesting the 42¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the 166.7% implied yield on the Yes side. The 520% realized volatility and 4.25 vol ratio indicate wild historical price swings, likely driven by sparse trading activity rather than fundamental information flow, making this a high-risk venue for position-taking. With 302 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market has ample time for Henry's 2026 season performance to materialize, but the illiquidity and extreme yield spread warrant caution before treating this as a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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