Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Croatia's 21¢ price reflects a modest 21% win probability for Group L, though the astronomical 1936% implied yield on the Yes side suggests extreme underpricing if they do advance—likely driven by thin $65K daily volume and $8.7M open interest creating a liquidity crunch.
Analysis
Croatia's 21¢ price reflects a modest 21% win probability for Group L, though the astronomical 1936% implied yield on the Yes side suggests extreme underpricing if they do advance—likely driven by thin $65K daily volume and $8.7M open interest creating a liquidity crunch. The 5¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price, and with 71 days to expiry, the neutral regime and minimal 1¢ price movement over seven days indicate this market hasn't yet priced in late-stage information or shifting odds from qualifying results. The Cliff Risk Index of 4 warrants caution, as sharp repricing could occur closer to the tournament if Croatia's group composition or form changes materially.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xc85d79fbcab7ab6a283a2c17fb8595de79de2b2ac10afbd7a6602ddbe0626ad4 yes 100