Will the Republicans win the Mississippi Senate race in 2026?

The market is pricing Republicans as overwhelming favorites at 91¢, reflecting Mississippi's deep red lean, but the extreme 1846% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns given the microscopic $0 trading volume over 24 hours. With only $10.9k open interest, a 93% realized volatility, and a 10/10 cliff risk index, this market lacks sufficient liquidity to trust the price discovery, and the asymmetric yield spread suggests the "No" contract may be artificially depressed due to minimal trading activity rather than genuine fundamental uncertainty.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Mississippi U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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