Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $293k, with zero 24-hour volume and an 18¢ spread indicating thin order books. The 40¢ price has collapsed 16 points from 56¢ just seven days ago, yet the implied yield remains stratospheric at 1606%, suggesting either mispricing or severe uncertainty about Adkerson's nomination prospects with only 33 days to resolution. The 2879% realized volatility and 6.3x volume ratio signal this is a highly speculative, information-sensitive market where large moves could occur on minor candidate developments or primary endorsements.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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