Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing September 8, 2026. Allen Waters is priced at a 4% probability of winning Rhode Island's Republican Senate nomination, reflecting extremely long odds in what appears to be an open race.
Analysis
Allen Waters is priced at a 4% probability of winning Rhode Island's Republican Senate nomination, reflecting extremely long odds in what appears to be an open race. The astronomical 6053% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution signals either deep uncertainty about the nominee or very thin liquidity ($922 in 24h volume), with the 2¢ spread suggesting minimal market confidence in price discovery. The market has declined from 5¢ to 4¢ over the past week with 145 days to expiry, and the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 indicates potential for sharp repricing as the primary approaches or candidate field clarifies.
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Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island. If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xc9ec0ff194451373b723698e23bdaca64aa139a883d8b766999b0bea01b0e949 yes 100