Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner
Leader sits at 55% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jared Hudson
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
Barry Moore
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$26K
liquid
Closes
May 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Alabama Republican Senate Primary Winner
Analysis
This 41% probability reflects the estimated chance that a specific candidate wins Alabama's Republican Senate primary election. The outcome depends primarily on candidate name recognition, endorsements from state party leadership, and performance in polling among Alabama Republicans. Primary results typically correlate with candidate fundraising capacity, organizational strength in key regions, and whether establishment figures coalesce behind a single candidate. The primary election date itself will provide definitive resolution, replacing current uncertainty with actual vote tallies. Early indicators like debate participation, media coverage patterns, and internal campaign metrics shape expectations as the election approaches. Shifts in this probability would likely reflect new endorsements, fundraising disclosures, or changes in candidate participation in the race.
- ›Candidate endorsement patterns, particularly from Alabama GOP leadership and sitting federal officials, measurably shift betting odds in primary races
- ›Fundraising reports and cash-on-hand figures provide concrete data about candidate resources relative to competitors
- ›Candidate participation—whether leading contenders remain active or withdraw—directly alters the competitive field and probability distributions
- ›Polling data specific to Alabama Republican voters shows explicit preference rankings that correlate with market movements
- ›The scheduled primary election date represents the ultimate resolution point; timing affects how much uncertainty remains priced into current odds
What moved the line
- Jun 17Jared Hudson↓10pp22→12¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 17Barry Moore↑9pp78→87¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Barry Moore↓5pp83→78¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 16Jared Hudson↑4pp18→22¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 14Jared Hudson↓3pp23→20¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
- KY-04 House Election Winnerlast 90% · 0d
- AZ-05 House Election Winnerlast 81% · 0d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 0d
- MN-08 House Election Winnerlast 73% · 0d
- Lebanon Parliamentary Election Winnerlast 5% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (55% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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