Will Shelley Hughes advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?

The 12¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for Hughes advancing from Alaska's four-candidate primary format, yet the implied yield of 2,175.9% on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing relative to the structural odds of a top-four finish in a likely multi-candidate field. With zero 24-hour volume despite $12.4M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity appears concentrated but inactive, raising questions about whether this price discovery is genuine or stale given the market's 123-day runway to the August 2026 resolution.

Resolution rules

The non-partisan primary election for Governor of Alaska is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Governor of Alaska. This market will resolve to “Yes” If the listed candidate advances from the primary to the general election for Governor of Alaska. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. If no 2026 Alaska gubernatorial primary takes place, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election for Governor of Alaska as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.

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