Will the Republicans win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026?

This market prices Republican victory at just 6%, reflecting Massachusetts's strong Democratic lean, yet the extreme 2860% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe illiquidity with minimal backing for a GOP win. The $31k open interest against only $6.3k in 24-hour volume indicates thin liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions, while the 16 Cliff Risk Index flags heightened volatility around resolution. The neutral regime score and wide 1¢ spread are consistent with a low-probability, low-volume market where price discovery may be unreliable.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

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