Will the Republican Party win the IL-05 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $19k open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather stale positioning. The 2888% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a deeply mispriced long-shot contract where minimal capital is required to generate outsized percentage returns, though the neutral regime score and moderate 16 cliff risk index suggest no imminent catalyst. IL-05 is a heavily Democratic district (Cook PVI D+13), making a Republican win genuinely unlikely, but the lack of trading activity means this price should be treated as illustrative rather than predictive.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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