Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

The 34¢ price reflects modest conviction in Santos finishing third, with a notably asymmetric risk profile where YES bets offer 415% annualized yield versus 110% for NO—suggesting market participants view downside protection as more valuable than upside exposure. With $28.1K open interest but only $1.2K in 24-hour volume and a 357% realized volatility, this market shows illiquidity relative to its size and extreme price swings, making the 4¢ spread potentially misleading given the thin trading activity. At 171 days to resolution, the 0.5/h information arrival rate and neutral regime indicate this is still in early price discovery for a Brazilian election where third-place finishes are inherently uncertain among a fragmented field.

Resolution rules

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election. The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

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