Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?

The 11¢ price reflects an extremely low probability for Russian capture of Druzhkivka within 74 days, yet the asymmetric implied yields (3990% for Yes vs. 61% for No) suggest significant tail risk embedded in this binary outcome. The market has declined 2¢ over seven days despite modest $609 daily volume and a relatively wide 2¢ spread, indicating thin liquidity and potential vulnerability to sharp repricing if battlefield conditions shift materially. With a Cliff Risk Index of 8 and neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative position on a low-probability military event rather than a liquid consensus market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Druzkhivka (https://maps.app.goo.gl/cH9ekgbf9qbxGPUk6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of the city or settlement is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine", “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Indicators

Regime

Trade