Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Alea Nadeem be the Republican nominee for OH-09?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 5, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with Nadeem's odds collapsing from 11¢ to 1¢ over seven days, just 18 days before the May 5 primary, suggesting she has effectively been eliminated from contention.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with Nadeem's odds collapsing from 11¢ to 1¢ over seven days, just 18 days before the May 5 primary, suggesting she has effectively been eliminated from contention. The implied yield of 65,322% on a "Yes" position reflects the market's near-certainty of her loss, though the $3.2M open interest against just $18 daily volume indicates this is a zombie position with virtually no liquidity for actual trading. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and 14,696% realized volatility suggest sharp, discrete price movements rather than gradual repricing, consistent with a candidate dropping out or being formally eliminated from the race.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0xcd24bf9e4312eff0c8e93716adf5f1507c802eb49940dc548686d3dd01f7dc80 yes 100