Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme distress signals with Cowan's price collapsing 93% over seven days (from 41¢ to 3¢), suggesting a major shift in nomination dynamics or candidate viability.
Analysis
This market shows extreme distress signals with Cowan's price collapsing 93% over seven days (from 41¢ to 3¢), suggesting a major shift in nomination dynamics or candidate viability. The astronomical 36,076% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the severe mispricing created by illiquidity—zero 24-hour volume and a wide 4¢ spread indicate this thin market cannot efficiently price the dramatic probability shift. With only 33 days to the May 19 primary and $7.6M open interest concentrated at outdated prices, this represents a classic liquidity trap where early positions are now deeply underwater.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the GA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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sf trade 0xcd4161173113a9bb31ac04921d150e6e8ad684c32e1cbde9288b7171a1451a1d yes 100