Will the Democratic Party win the MA-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract is pricing MA-02 as heavily favored at 94¢ with an extremely wide yield spread—the No side offers an implausible 2859% implied yield versus just 11.6% for Yes, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the No contract. With zero 24-hour volume despite $18.3M open interest and 200 days to expiration, this market appears inactive, making the quoted price potentially stale and unreliable for actual trading. The high cliff risk index of 16 combined with the neutral regime score indicates significant uncertainty about how this market will evolve as we approach the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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