Will the Democratic Party win the NY-24 House seat?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Will the Democratic Party win the NY-24 House seat?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 955% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 34.6% on the "No" side, suggesting the 16¢ price may significantly undervalue Democratic chances in NY-24, though the zero 24-hour volume raises questions about whether this pricing reflects genuine consensus or illiquidity-driven mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 955% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus just 34.6% on the "No" side, suggesting the 16¢ price may significantly undervalue Democratic chances in NY-24, though the zero 24-hour volume raises questions about whether this pricing reflects genuine consensus or illiquidity-driven mispricing. The $19.5K open interest is modest for a high-profile House race with over 200 days to expiry, and the tight 1¢ spread indicates minimal active trading despite the substantial yield differential. With a Cliff Risk Index of 5 and neutral regime, this appears to be a potentially mispriced market where the Democratic probability may be substantially higher than the current 16% reflects, but traders should verify NY-24's recent electoral history and current political environment before interpreting the yield gap as actionable.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
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Trade
sf trade 0xcd945b413249f1b254e84014fad51e6db5d2b719891c6f116830c95e2e77d226 yes 100