Will Jill Kirkham win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Will Jill Kirkham win the 2026 Idaho Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are stale and the 13¢ spread may not reflect true market consensus.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1.5M open interest, suggesting the positions are stale and the 13¢ spread may not reflect true market consensus. The 11,561% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a low-probability long-shot position with minimal trading activity, making the 9¢ price potentially unreliable for serious analysis. With only 32 days until resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 10 (maximum), this market carries substantial execution risk if late-breaking news about Kirkham's candidacy emerges.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Idaho, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Idaho Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Idaho Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0xce5d04a7db77167a10ebd515e0c367952e71bf6713a2024b2fd5acc07ceb6d1e yes 100