Will the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage hit 6.50% (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?

This mortgage rate market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 82¢ spread despite fair-value pricing at 50¢, suggesting the $15.886 open interest is concentrated among few positions. The realized volatility of 2404% and 7-day price collapse from 75¢ to 50¢ indicate sharp recent repricing, likely reflecting market skepticism about rates reaching 6.50% given current economic conditions and Fed policy expectations. With 259 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the 147% annualized yield on the YES side may attract contrarian bettors, but the illiquidity and high information arrival rate (5.0/h) suggest this market could experience sudden repricing on mortgage data releases or Fed communications.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, for any week ending on or before December 31, 2026, the U.S. 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage (interest rate %) is equal to or above the listed rate, according to the Freddie Mac weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be Freddie Mac — specifically, the 30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage rates published through the weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which can be viewed at https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. This market will resolve as soon as the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage is equal to or greater than the listed price, or once data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for the final week ending on or before December 31, 2026 has been published by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. Note: All published weekly levels of the 30-year Fixed-Rate Mortgage will be treated as final. Revisions to previously published data will not be considered.

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