Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Josh Allen win the 2026 NFL MVP?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing February 15, 2027. Josh Allen's MVP odds have collapsed 20% over the past week to 39¢, suggesting deteriorating performance expectations or shifting market sentiment toward competing candidates, though the extreme 1308% realized volatility and massive 52¢ spread indicate this is a highly illiquid market with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume).
Analysis
Josh Allen's MVP odds have collapsed 20% over the past week to 39¢, suggesting deteriorating performance expectations or shifting market sentiment toward competing candidates, though the extreme 1308% realized volatility and massive 52¢ spread indicate this is a highly illiquid market with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume). The 189% implied yield on "Yes" positions reflects the substantial risk premium demanded for what remains a speculative long-shot bet with over 300 days until resolution, while the 12.41 vol ratio and 5.1 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is reactive to weekly NFL developments despite its thin liquidity.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd1375d878771db8beecd19af2a1150708e950cc06593ae0f58e0bd2de5396caa yes 100