Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will there be between 20 and 30 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 26,830% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 9¢ pricing, suggesting severe illiquidity ($29 daily volume against $11.5M open interest) is driving distorted odds rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 26,830% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 9¢ pricing, suggesting severe illiquidity ($29 daily volume against $11.5M open interest) is driving distorted odds rather than genuine probability assessment. The 80-basis-point spread and dramatic 566% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position where the narrow price band (20-30 transits) may simply be underweighted by market participants unfamiliar with typical Strait of Hormuz transit patterns. With 14 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 10, any new geopolitical developments affecting Middle Eastern shipping could cause sharp repricing, though the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (0.2/h) suggest the market currently expects stability around baseline transit levels.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xd30ed4299e3ff89e3b413a80cf9ab482356749157d983698a0249af6831f31b1 yes 100